Horizon Scanning

Some of the trends and drivers that we’re monitoring across all nations and industries, updated regularly. Horizons represent timeframes in which we estimate these trends will significantly impact the strategic calculus of governments and businesses.

Horizon One: 0-2 years

  • Combined stressors on U.S. strategic bandwidth, notably Russian & Chinese assertiveness.
  • Novel actors and capabilities shifting the Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) environment.
  • Australia-China relationship deteriorating & ongoing implications for NZ.
  • Algorithms of oppression, particularly facial recognition technology.
  • Zespri-China kiwifruit trade, interplay of Intellectual Property (IP) and supply chain.
  • Global semiconductor shortage, potential TSMC vulnerabilities vis-a-vis China.
  • CCP influence in New Zealand, United Front & PLA ties to universities & private sector. 

Horizon Two: 2-5 years

  • ‘Viz-Glasses’, augmented reality developments & duel-use applications.
  • Russian energy-expansionism in the Arctic & EU response.
  • Rising far-right & nationalist sentiment in New Zealand, becoming less fringe.
  • Net Zero/Green Building regulatory environment and new materials.
  • Increasing ‘Anti-work’ sentiment globally, inflation & cost of living crisis.

Horizon Three: 5-10 years

  • Regulation of Autonomous Weapon Systems.
  • Weaponisation of DNA sequencing technology.
  • Data science revolutionising the healthcare sector.

Horizon Four: 10-20+ years

  • Militarisation of space & emergence of orbital industries, e.g. asteroid mining.
  • Ageing populations in North America, Europe & East Asia, future of work & economic impact.
  • Youth-bulge in Africa & economic growth, interplay with China’s BRI.

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